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The fallacy of the Baby Boom

There is a mega-echo-chamber blerg of info about Boomer and Xer dates, and it’s this: Boomers are born 1946-1964 because, well, there were lots of babies after WWII and then there was this big last-hurrah of baby-making in 1961-1964.

Alas, Census Bureau staff don’t decide or make generations: life conditions and experiences do.

See, the REASON the “Baby Boom” thing is bunk is that, yes, there was a fertility boom after WWII, for a bit: young Silents marrying and babying VERRRRRRRY early in life (in the nation’s new “Spring” season) plus pent-up, marry-and-have-babies energy from younger Heroes/GI’s who had delayed marriage and baby-making during the crisis-y Crisis Years made for a burst of babies after WWII.

Then birth rates slowed for a bit.

THEN, between 1961-1964, when the anti-child movement started in full swing and birth control and abortion were the hot-hot-hot subjects of the day, there was almost a cultural backlash against the reproductive-freedom movement and the birth rate was high in 1961-1964.

It then plummeted and did so in America’s fifth “great awakening” era, which we know as the Consciousness Revolution from the mid-’60s to the mid’-’80s.

This phenomenon of lots of babies in a specific window of time that was also about the length of a generation caused some demographers to say, “Oh, wow, look a baby boom,” and they clumped all the years together, called it a generation and ensconced in public perception a non-fact (the generational dates for Boomers). The time and the era was also the “spring time” era and that is a time of fecundity, nesting and baby-making.

But demographers in governmental roles do not have authority or experience to decide generational birth years. It’s generational EXPERIENCE that creates generations.

The way it works, is that about three years before a defining, season-/era-changing event occurs is when a new generation is born.

For Boomers, it’s 1946-3 years = 1943.

For Xers, it’s JFK/1964-3 years = 1961.

That’s how it works.

BIG EVENT minus about 2-4 years/average 3, and that’s the start year of a new generation. (There are other factors involved, but that’s the short cut way of understanding new generational start years.)

For Millennials, it’s Reagan’s Morning in American (1985) – 3 years = 1982.

And for the after-the-Millennials, it’s the Global Financial Crisis/GFC 2008 – 3 years = 2005.

That’s how it works. You can have whatever thoughts on the subject you want, but the data will play out over the decades to prove these birth year markers to be accurate.

Also, fwiw, GenXers have always been about 28% larger than Boomers. Something no one believes, but it’s true. Birth rates for Xer years went down, but immigration was UP, and many of those who came over were either GenX-aged children with their parents, and shortly after, GenX-aged young adults.

So, Xers are significantly larger than Boomers, to boot.

Where were you when JFK was shot?

A Boom-X marker is JFK’s assassination. Most (almost, almost, almost ALL of them … except maybe some born in late 1960) have a distinct memory of JFK’s assassination. They may have been too young to understand what happened, but they FELT the profound shift in the adults around them … MEMORABLY.

Anyone born in 1961 or after would be too young to remember an event as such in late 1963, but most people born 1960 and earlier distinctly remember it.

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