No question about it: Burning Man–particularly that big event in the desert–is changing. There are many contributing factors, but I’ll offer one I think is more dominant than most people know to know that’s impacting the event and its culture: generational change.
the generational genesis of burning man
Burning Man, which started first on a beach in 1986 then moved to Black Rock Desert in 1990, has occurred for 40 years running. Social movements and trends tend to last 11 years, 22 years or 44 years (44 years being half a reasonably long human life). But some of the forces impacting Burning Man have roots that began a handful of years earlier, in the early ’80s when GenXers (the Nomad archetype in the four-part cycle of generations, the extreme risk-takers and those born 1961-1981) were emerging as the nation’s young adults. The Nomad archetype at its core is focused on survival, liberty and honor.
Boomers with their generation’s widely well-known Woodstock–a hygienic disaster of unimaginable proportions–are a generational archetype focused on vision, values and mission. Burning Man founders Larry Harvey and Jerry James were clearly and of course Boomers, as were/are the people on the event’s early board of directors. Larry Harvey gave us not rules and structure but The 10 Principles. Principles! How’s that for a gift from a vision- and values-focused generation?
These 10 guiding principles were just as applicable in 2004, when Larry wrote them to help guide the growing phenomenon of regional burns, as they are today. That’s what Boomers, the Prophet archetype, in the big-picture of things do: they provide moral direction. They make us answer the question, “Why?”
Boomers are also very much a culturally dominant voice wherever they are, at whatever age they are. And while they eschewed “The Man’s” ways (well, at least when they were younger and were expressing their Oedipal frustrations with their daddy’s Greatest-generation generation of war heroes, chanting and ranting “Hell No, We Won’t Go!”, and while Boomers were very much the majority of the 30- and 40-something Burning Man attendees in the event’s early days, I offer it was the nation’s new young adults, GenXers, who brought and defined the true grit and depth of understanding to concept of “radical self-reliance,” not only in Burning Man’s early days in the mid-’80s, but for these past 40 years.
In 2025, now that first wave of Xers are about to start cresting into their mid-60s and the phase of life called elderhood, that grit and radical self-reliance, ubiquitous in Burning Man culture for four decades, is changing, and with it, the culture of Burning Man is, too.
See, for the first half of Burning Man’s history, GenXers were the nation’s rising adults. They were the generation which, from the early ’80s and on for the next 20 years, moved into the slots of being the nation’s young adults in their 20s and then 30s. For the second half of Burning Man’s history (the mid-aughts to now), Xers have been the nation’s rising midlife leaders, those is their mid-40s to mid-60s. But that’s all a-switchin’ as time marches on; and with it, all aspects of culture.
xers’ intimate understanding of radical self-reliance
Xers are, by dint of the time they were children and a generation pretty much kicked to the curb by a nationwide culture of self-exploring, self-indulgent adults, are the extreme risk-taking generation. Xers are the ones who have had to understand “Radical Self-Reliance” since childhood. Xers are the ones for whom there is no net, the ones who show a nation the importance of protecting children by being the real-life examples of what happens when you neglect and under-protect an entire generation of children. Xers are the ones who develop, first, into a generation of hard-scrabble children … then into alienated, market-driven young adults … then into frenetic yet-pragmatic-AF mid-lifers.
And Xers are very much the nation’s middle-aged adults. Completely and utterly as they are 44-64 years old in 2025, and midlife, when looked at as a phase of human development and not as a willy-nilly term to be applied to people having a tough time adulting, is defined as being from ages 44-65. You can’t get a more solidly-in-midlife period of a generation occupying that phase of life than exactly and right now. (And, yes, that 1961-1981 Xer birth years are the correct ages, per Strauss and Howe’s work on generational archetypes, which if you haven’t read and if you are interested in culture change from a mind-blowing perspective, I recommend you read.)
So, we–the nation, society, all aspects of life– now have Xers as our middle-aged adults, which also means the oldest of this generation are at the tail end of their mid-life years and at the cusp of entering elderhood, which is often defined as the mid-60s to mid-80s. In the late 2020s, and with each passing year, Xers will occupy one more slot of being the nation’s elders, and Boomers, one less as they begin to move into later elderhood.
Not that “elders” can’t or won’t go to Burning Man; they do now, but naturally and understandably there will be fewer and fewer people in their mid-60s to mid-80s who want to go, can go and do go to Burning Man.
the protected millennials
The Millennial generation (what is known as the Hero archetype in generational cycles) are the ones for whom society “rallied the wagons,” so to speak, to protect the young: specifically and namely their generation, and specifically and namely to protect them from the perceived–and sometimes real–moral decrepitude of Xers. From their arrival as infants and the seemingly overnight explosion of parents driving cars proudly and protectively announcing “Baby Inside” with their yellow cautionary stickers and then with every additional year of this generation’s existence, at every age, at every stage of childhood development and on into their young adulthood, they have been protected in a way no Xer child ever was.
Millennials only experiencing a world of increasing protection and ever-growing concern for their safety and well-being is not a bad thing, per se. Protecting children is what adults, families, communities, governments and nations are supposed to do.
But just as Xers’ resilient, savvy, self-deprecating, edgy, rootless, hustling, free-agent and risk-taking nature was born of their societal-wide treatment as children, so was Millennials’ nature to be friendly, team-oriented, sharing, rule-following, mainstream and cohesive formed in the treatment as children.
Millennials have been the nation’s young adults since the early 2000s, and their arrival at Burning Man impacted the culture there, too. Children become young adults, and when they are young adults, they expect the world to be as it was when they were young. (This is human nature.) Millennials expect more protections, more support, more safety and more adult intervention on their behalf than any self-respecting Xer ever would, could, did or will.
a new generation, the Artist archetype, rising
So, here we are now with Xers fully and completely occupying the slot of the nation’s mid-life adults; Millennials (born 1982-2005–yes, those are the dates that track more accurately to their experience and the data than anything you’ll read about in MSM) are now fully and completely in the phase of life called young adulthood; and we have–as we always do–a generation of children coming behind the young adults.
This generation after the Millennials, which has been squashed into non-existence by “Everyone’s” insistence that there is a Gen Z (there isn’t) is known as the Artist archetype. It’s no surprise their existence as a true generation isn’t being acknowledged–and it likely won’t be until the oldest among them are in their early 30s. Such non-acknowledgement or mashing them into the generations before and after is what happens to recessive generations, of which both Xers and those born 2006 to (likely) 2028 are.
Of note, the nation’s two prior recessive generations are 1) The Silent Generation (great name, right?), also the Artist archetype and those born 1925-1942, and 2) The Lost Generation (great name for a Nomad, GenX-like generation, right?) and those born 1883-1900.
This Neither-Named-Nor-Acknowledged-Yet Generation is currently 19 at the top end in 2025. As children move into the final third of childhood, into the 16-21 years-old range, they move onto a bridge that carries them into young adulthood, and we call this “coming of age.” These Not-Named-Yets (NNYs) are just staring to come of age, and in a few years will begin to crest into young adulthood, right as Millennials begin to crest into midlife, right as Xers begin to crest into elderhood and right as Boomers begin to crest into late elderhood (mid-80s and on).
burning man, the coffee house of the 2040s
These NNYs are a hyper-protected, polite, rule-following, color-within-the-lines generation. They will likely become a generation of young-adult technocrats and credentialed professionals who, in their age-based role of being the young adults to midlife Millennials, will fall in behind and help implement Millennials’ (the Hero archetypes’) midlife visions for constructing a Grand New World.
These NNYs are, as the Artist archetype, also likely to become the greatest singers, songwriters, poets and playwrights of “the times,” but as they’re only 19 years old at the top end now, we haven’t really seen them shine. As this coming-of-age generation occupies, more and more each year, the nation’s slot of young adults, we are likely to see Burning Man get smaller, more intimate, and much, much richer in small art, small performances, poetry sessions, folk and acoustical music and intimate gatherings.
Put it on your calendar if you want: starting in the late 2030s, the nation is likely to see a resurgence of the the folk-music filled coffee houses so popular in the late 1950s and into the ’60s. And as anything having to do with art, culture and music is going to show up in full at Burning Man, you can expect to see a shift in this direction.
time and dust
What we have now in 2025 with Burning Man attendees–when looking through the lens of generational archetypes–is a minority population (less than 5 percent from what I can tell) of elder Boomers, ages 65-82. (And, yes, those are the more accurate ages for Boomers, whose birth years track better as 1943-1960). We have a decreasing share of Xers attending. I think Xer attendance is currently about 30-35 percent. And we have, as one might assume, a majority of attendees (probably a good 55 percent) in their 20s and 30s, or in young adulthood, all of whom are Millennials. And we have a fraction of NNYs children under the age 20, but for whom the first of them born turn 20 in 2026.
FWIW, I can only see BM Census data online, but the information most relevant would be the ages of all ticket purchasers, not the partial story the Census data reveals. HMU if you know how to get this info.
Now, many changes have been afoot in Burning Man (leadership change, a change in legal status, and much more). And while many other factors are at play in the changes in/at/around/with Burning Man, the thing that’s always at play and always underlying any other changes is the presence of generational archetypes, their age-based social roles and the dynamics of change as people–and their attendant generations–age.
from the shadows to the limelight
Many changes have occurred in who attends Burning Man as it transitioned from the extreme, off-the-radar, oft-dangerous event young Xers relished into one of wider national awareness, national headlines and a wider net of safety standards. As the event has moved out of the shadows (where Xers love to hang) and into the light (where Millennials need to be) it has changed. It has to. It can’t be the same event with a different generational mix at hand. It can be at the same location, and it can operate under the same 10 Principles, but it must change as the generational make-up changes.
When I first started going to regional burns in the mid-aughts, few people in my world in the D.C. Metro area had ever heard of Burning Man, which would make sense as young Xers flock to the fringes of society. Whatever and wherever is the Farthest Away from The Center is where you’ll find young Xers; they don’t want everyone to know what they’re doing. There’s a reason the wear-all-black-all-the-time thing became a thing when Xers were the nation’s young adults. And there’s a reason Apple store employees transitioned from wearing the ubiquitous black T-shirts for years to wearing colorful–very, very colorful–T-shirts. One generation knows its survival is dependent on staying off the radar of adults; another knows it’s survival depends on being on the radar of adults. 24/7.
Also, “Society” is never really interested in Xers and what they’re doing, only in punishing Xers, locking them up in an explosive-growth prison-industry business, and telling them how morally bankrupt they were. Well, that was a favorite past-time of many a Boomer, the generation one up from Xers on the ladder, especially when Xers were the nation’s young adults.
In 2010, the year I first attended That Thing in the Desert, even though 51,500 people bought tickets, Millennials were five to 28 years old. Yes, Millennials were at Burning Man then, but not en masse, not as the dominant generation in attendance.
But in the past 15 years Millennials have become the nation’s 20-43 years old, and where they go, goes institutional attention, care and concern.
Now that Millennials have been the nation’s young adults for the past two decades, this monitored-since-infancy, put-in-play-groups-as-toddlers generation wants everyone to know where they are. All the time. And the adults who care about them want to know everything about where they are, too. All the time. Such attention is normal to Millennials. They feel safer under the watchful, caring eyes of adults–an experience young Xers not only didn’t share but couldn’t conceive. As Millennials increasingly filled the slot of the young adults in their 20s and 30s attending Burning Man, the event became more mainstreamed, as Millennials are–at least in comparison to the Xers and Boomers before them–incredibly mainstream in their worldviews, perspectives and desires.
bigger shifts a-comin’
We’re close now to a big culture shift. Nationwide. Maybe worldwide because generational boundary birthdates are synching up more from nation to nation, which wasn’t true 80-some years ago when this current generational cycle–this saeculum as it’s called (which always starts with the Boomer-like generation of Prophet archetypes being born, by the way)–began.
The shininess of Burning Man is also fading, and I offer much of that change is because of generational shifts; and I think an even bigger shift is coming in the next ten years and onward. Burning Man is shinier to mainstream attendees, to Millennials and their peers in particular. More “normies” want to attend and come see what it’s all about. All the while, with each passing year, fewer of the radically self-reliant, always-accomplish-the-mission, do-what-needs-to-get-done Xers attending.
Based on the natural progression of generations through time, along with the four core phases of life and the attendant social roles associated with each of those phase of life) a decade from now, our nation will be full on in a new era of “Spring.” (We’re currently in the “Winter of our times”–the cold, dark times, … no duh, huh?) Spring is the time of birth, renewal, babies and nesting.
Abandoned elder Xers (yeah, Xers, no surprises there, right? … always the generation to be the wrong age at the wrong time) will be 54-74 years old in 2036; the upbeat, collegial, civil-engineer-like Millennials will be 30-53 years old and they’ll be busy beginning to envision and build a New Golden Age; and the Not-Named-Yets–the quiet ones–will be (likely) 7-29 years old.
Burning Man will be a very, very, very different event, environment and culture because the generational mix will be very, very, very different.
In ten years, Xers, who when young found their power and expression in risk, entrepreneurialism and edginess, will–per the way generational archetypes unfold–have mellowed into risk-averse, kind, generous “old foagies” in a new era and age. Millennials will be beginning to experience their midlife generational power as a collective force as they move to rebuild the nation and mainstream-ify national culture (no room for edginess with them; everyone gets to be included… as long as they are part of the mainstream, that is). And the emerging young adults will likely be placid, polite, kind, empathetic, introspective, romantic and law-abiding, to name some of their traits. They’ll also likely be fantastically artistic, pluralistic and expressive.
Burning Man HAS to change when generations shift positions in society. All of society does. Always. Like clockwork.
All of society changes when each generation first moves into a new phase of life; it changes some more when a generation fully occupies that phase of life; and it changes yet again when a generation starts to move out of one phase of life and into the next one. Those four core phases of life–childhood, young adulthood, midlife and elderhood–and which generational archetype is where provide the most interesting of insights into culture change.
We’re a few years from the first-born of each generation — Xers, Millennials and after-Millennials moving up a notch. Boomers will be moving “up,” too, with the first of them moving into “late elderhood,” and–by nature of life, society, age-based social roles and the saeculum of human life–will be less influential on culture and society. And, by nature, a new Boomer-like generation will be born, starting around 2028.
it’s a small, small world
Burning Man is an exquisite experience. The place, the culture, the people, the art … it’s like no other. But it’s not stagnant. It’s not eternally formed. Generational aging is why culture is always changing, and that includes Burning Man.
I know there are many factors affecting “That Thing in the Desert,” but/and generational shifts have enormous influence on culture. You just can’t see them easily–unless you have the lens, the model, that allows you to see such changes–because you’re part of them. But it’s there. Everything everyone sees, thinks and does is impacted by generations–both theirs and the others around them.
Also, big whopper social trends of 22 and 44 years tend to get bigger and climactic toward their ends. Folks tend to misconstrue that expansion of a trend as a sign of more growth in the same direction, but it’s the opposite that’s happening. It’s the final wisps–the final hurrah–of a trend we’re witnessing. Not continued expansion.
I don’t find it the least bit surprising that as Burning Man got mega-huge-big in recent years, and I’m not surprised camps are having a harder time filling slots, tickets are going unsold. As Burning Man got apex-y big, not just in the media but with its art and projects and camp sizes, in the last decade or so, it wasn’t on a trajectory of getting bigger and bigger (as many assumed); rather, I believe, it was climaxing and reaching its greatest heights before the decline began. The shift
Now “decline” doesn’t have to mean “worse,” it just means different. Things have to be different. The generational mix of a nation’s children, young adults, mid-lifers and elders is ever changing, and with it, a nation’s culture and vibe, and all its attendant social structures do, too.
Trying to hold on to what was and what has passed, rather than allowing what’s new and fresh to come forth, always sucks. The only way forward is forward. Time marches on. People age. Generations age. Things change.
The playa dusts of time forever shift. That’s life.
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This photo is from the 2011 temple, which is still my favorite! I don’t have a photo credit for this image.
